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Commodity Assessment: 18 – 22 December 2023

Gold and Silver costs ended barely decrease on Friday (15/12). Friday’s strengthening US Greenback weighed on metallic costs. As well as, hawkish feedback from New York Fed President Williams weakened Gold costs, as he rejected hypothesis a few Fed fee lower in March.

Wanting on the information, the variety of preliminary jobless claims within the US final week was 202,000, in comparison with the estimate of 220,000. The earlier determine was revised as much as 221,000 from 220,000. The variety of persevering with jobless claims within the week of two December was 1.876 million, in comparison with expectations of 1.887 million, and former claims have been revised to 1.856 million from 1.861 million. US retail gross sales rose 0.3% m/m in November, in comparison with an anticipated decline of 0.1%, and the earlier information was revised from a decline of 0.1% to a decline of 0.2%. Core retail gross sales rose 0.2% m/m, in comparison with an estimated decline of 0.1%, and the earlier determine was revised to flat from an increase of 0.1%.

On Friday (15 December), spot gold fell barely and is at the moment buying and selling round $2019. Buying and selling on expectations of a fee lower the day earlier than, was let down by the information launched. US retail gross sales and preliminary jobless claims information have been stronger than anticipated, suggesting that the job market and shopper spending stay resilient.

Expectations of a significant Fed fee lower subsequent 12 months eased barely, regardless of indicators from Powell’s earlier statements. Because of this, gold costs stopped shifting larger and fluctuated extensively yesterday. Early final week, gold rose on bullish information, however the news-driven development was short-lived and intermittent. At present, the power of bulls and bears within the 2019 – 2047 vary is comparatively balanced. Within the brief time period, fee lower expectations are corrected. However within the medium and long run, merchants will deal with when and by how a lot rates of interest will probably be lower. As soon as international central banks, subject clear indicators to chop rates of interest, gold may have a clearer path.


Final week, XAUUSD costs surged to 2047, then fluctuated downwards, falling to a low close to 2015. The failure to surpass the 2051 resistance, signifies that the bullish sentiment is just not robust sufficient. Gold costs are more likely to transfer inside the vary of 2009 – 2047 subsequent. Nonetheless, a drop beneath the 2009 resistance stage will deliver a decline to check the latest low of 1972 and additional to the FE61.8% projection of 1941 from 21441972 and 2047 drawdown.

In the meantime, silver costs got here below strain, on account of industrial metallic demand considerations after US manufacturing manufacturing in November, US December S&P manufacturing PMI and Japan’s Jibun Financial institution December manufacturing PMI stories have been all weaker than anticipated. A supporting issue for treasured metals on Friday was low international bond yields.


XAGUSD worth recorded a 7-month excessive of 25.89 final week, however since then it has fallen -13% to document a low of 22.48 earlier than a brief rebound to chop losses. In the intervening time, the value seems fairly impartial.On the upside, a transfer above 24.27 may check the 61.8percentFR stage round 24.66. Whereas on the draw back, a continued transfer opens up the potential for testing the latest low.

Copper futures rose in the direction of $3.8 per pound, near a four-month excessive of $3.92 hit on December 1, monitoring different base metals’ beneficial properties as dovish projections from the Fed pressured the greenback and supported the outlook for industrial exercise. Central financial institution members elevated the variety of rate of interest cuts projected for subsequent 12 months whereas revising down its measure of inflation, elevating hopes that decrease borrowing prices may help manufacturing exercise. As well as, the weaker US Greenback elevated international demand for base metals priced in USD, thereby additionally driving up their costs.

Provide considerations additionally supported this development, as Panama plans to shut its First Quantum Cobre mine, thus halting manufacturing from a significant supply of world provide. Nonetheless, restricted demand expectations from China capped the upside, triggered by the lack of stimulus bulletins, after a sequence of coverage conferences this week.


Copper continues to be on a short-term upward path above the 200-period EMA, and for now it tends to be impartial. A transfer to the upside may check 3.92 resistance whereas a transfer beneath 3.84 may check 3.74 help.

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Ady Phangestu

Market Analyst – HF Instructional Workplace – Indonesia

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