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Thursday, February 29, 2024

Day by day Foreign exchange Information and Watchlist: EUR/USD


It’s a comparatively quiet day within the foreign exchange enviornment, so I’m simply preserving an eye fixed for this consolidation play.

Will EUR/USD bust out of its triangle quickly?

Earlier than shifting on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out GBP/USD’s selloff after the U.Okay. CPI launch. You’ll want to try if it’s nonetheless a superb play!

And now for the headlines that rocked the markets within the final buying and selling periods:

Recent Market Headlines & Financial Knowledge:

U.S. CB client confidence index improved from 101.0 to 110.7 vs. 104.6 forecast to mirror stronger optimism, chalking up steepest climb since early 2021

U.S. EIA crude oil inventories rose by a shock 2.9 million barrels vs. estimated discount of two.3 million barrels and earlier 4.3 million barrel drop

Philadelphia Fed President Harker says that job of controlling inflation shouldn’t be but achieved however that they may not have to hike charges anymore

New Zealand bank card spending recovered by 3.3% year-over-year in November after earlier 2.8% droop

Chinese language authorities suspended tariffs cuts on Taiwanese imports because of heightened considerations about “discriminatory prohibitions and restrictions”

Japanese Cupboard Workplace half-yearly report featured upgrades on GDP and inflation forecasts, as corporations prone to go value will increase to customers

Worth Motion Information

Overlay of JPY vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

Overlay of JPY vs. Main Currencies Chart by TradingView

After promoting off throughout the BOJ determination earlier this week, the Japanese yen staged a little bit of a rebound within the Asian session due to some optimism from Japan’s Cupboard Workplace.

Members upgraded their GDP forecast whereas additionally projecting that inflation may quickly hit 3% since corporations are anticipated to go greater prices to customers. This might need been sufficient to revive hopes that the central financial institution may carry rates of interest and modify their YCC targets someday subsequent 12 months.

Elsewhere, main currencies have been in consolidation mode, as merchants may be bracing for top-tier catalysts earlier than the top of the week or beginning to pare liquidity forward of vacation festivities.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Financial Calendar:

Canadian headline and core retail gross sales at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. remaining GDP q/q at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. preliminary jobless claims at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. Philly Fed index at 1:30 pm GMT
Japanese nationwide core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
BOJ financial coverage assembly minutes at 11:50 pm GMT

Use our new Foreign money Warmth Map to shortly see a visible overview of the foreign exchange market’s value motion!  ️

EUR/USD 15-min Forex Chart

EUR/USD 15-min Foreign exchange Chart by TV

Most majors are caught in ranges to date immediately, together with EUR/USD which has shaped decrease highs and better lows inside a symmetrical triangle sample.

Worth is hanging out on the Pivot Level degree (1.0950) and minor psychological mark, after having bounced off the triangle help. A continuation of the climb may spur a check of the triangle high or R1 (1.0970).

Technical indicators are suggesting that resistance is extra prone to maintain than to interrupt, because the shifting averages are gearing up for a bearish crossover. Additionally, Stochastic is already heading south, so EUR/USD may comply with swimsuit till oversold circumstances are met.

Stronger bearish vibes and a triangle breakdown may see a check of the subsequent draw back targets at S1 (1.0920) and even S2 (1.0900) at a serious psychological help. Notice that the triangle spans roughly 120 pips, so preserve an eye fixed out for a selloff that’s the identical measurement because the chart sample.

Greenback merchants have the ultimate U.S. GDP studying for Q3 2023 to maintain tabs on, as any main revisions may nonetheless influence Fed coverage expectations. Don’t overlook that the December FOMC determination hinted at fee cuts in 2024, so a downgrade may imply extra draw back for the U.S. foreign money.

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